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Usually, the NFL's Coach of the Year honor follows a straightforward pattern. It frequently serves as a kind of mea culpa. Sorry we underestimated your squad in our pre-campaign projections.

Theoretically, it's a direct trajectory: the skipper who orchestrated the biggest improvement is handed the prize. In reality, it creates an annual argument about expectations and whether we're truly rewarding superior leadership or merely the biggest surprise.

Yet the latest race is fundamentally unique. The group of nominees is remarkably talented. It has been the year of turnarounds. The NFL has been chaotic, with reigning conference winners declining and recent underperformers rising in unison. During an normal season, a coach leading the his team to the summit of the AFC would make him the stone-cold front-runner. But in this wild and fun year, he's up against five other outstanding coaches.

Below is how the ideal vote ought to shake out.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, Their Record

Coach of the Year selectors adore quarterbacks. History shows this. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. When you transform a quarterback, you're well on your way to winning the award.

Ben Johnson hasn't just corrected his young quarterback; he's unlocked him. Within an ideal environment, the QB has been given the opportunity to display his special talent. Since Week 9, the Bears rank number four in offensive EPA per play. That's not a hot streak – it's consistent excellence. Under Johnson, Williams has become more confident, less reckless, and has eagerly submitted to the system rather than freelancing. It is an attack built solely in Johnson's image: a physical run game, a consistent dose of play-action passes and a creative passing attack that springs wide receiver targets consistently. Williams has thrived. And when openings weren't there, he's been able to create big plays out of broken plays.

Johnson arrived to Chicago with a clear offensive vision. Almost each bet – rebuilding the offensive line, featuring the tight ends, turning the QB into a timing-based thrower – has worked. That's uncommon for a first-year skipper. And it's rarer still for a leader who walked into the building with the level of hype he did. For two straight offseasons, he was the top name on the head coaching carousel. But when it comes to selecting a leader, there are zero guarantees. Remarkably, Johnson has lived up to the hype – and even surpassed them. He's demonstrated not just to be a scheme genius but the kind of leader that can breathe new life into an franchise.

During a typical year, he would be the overwhelming favorite. But the current isn't a typical season!

Where his candidacy comes a bit into trouble is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense currently rank 25th in defensive success rate. They are relying on takeaways, and turnovers are notoriously inconsistent. Defensive minds can emphasise creating turnovers, but nobody can guarantee it. Johnson is on the list because the offensive production is sustainable. He's not higher because variance is doing an outsized share of the defensive heavy lifting. With a few bounces of the ball, the Bears would be two victories worse off. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the foundation is in place for sustained winning. However Johnson comes up short in this ranking.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

Coen is in a comparable spot to Johnson. He's another rookie leader who has engineered a dramatic turnaround. During the crucial final weeks of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the finest all-around ball of his career. And he's also spearheaded the overhaul of a defense that now sits at number five in the NFL in EPA per play.

Even more impressively, Coen has mastered the off-field aspects, which was not a given after his early public appearances and some of his offseason moves.

The coach walked into the Jaguars with an exceptionally inexperienced coaching staff. Unlike Johnson, who surrounded themselves with the perfect staff blend of youth and experience, he hired newbies. From the leader on down to coordinators to position coaches, the Jags are stocked with first-timers. That kind of approach is exciting on paper, but often collapses in reality – with other teams are a warning – because everyone is learning a new job in real-time. Yet Coen has managed to bring the entire group and everything into sync.

Following an early strong beginning, there was a risk that the campaign would go off the track. A mid-year setback caused the team wobbling once more. That's usually when coaches panic and change too much. Coen didn't. Instead, he simplified things. Jacksonville stopped chasing explosive plays and started hunting reliable ones. The coach recentered the offense around key players and the ground attack, and asked his QB to use his legs more often.

The outcomes are evident. The Jags have won seven games consecutively and will be the AFC's number three playoff seed. He gets the tiniest knock in the standings because he took over a skilled team, but he has proven he can maximize that roster.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Every Strong of the Year case has a hinge moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback choice.

Moving on from a incumbent, signing a different signal-caller and partnering him with an innovative offensive coordinator could have ended the season in October. Rather, it shaped it. Through the mid point of the year, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player candidate. He has regressed since that time, slipping to a lower rank in efficiency per dropback over the second half of the season, placing him only one spot ahead of peers.

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