Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency triggered by the presentation of a new comprehensive peace framework for achieving ceasefire appeared – briefly – to have been contained. A Washington representative spoke of "significant advancement" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its response: an extensive attack of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Negotiation and Warfare
The chain of conflicting incidents captured the harsh reality of the current period. By day, diplomatic battles are waged: hopeful statements are released from multiple capitals. Significant resources is devoted on managing specific proposals. By night, the Kremlin brutally reminds the world that, for them, war remains the key method for achieving "peace".
After-Dark Attacks
As Russia's attack progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's defenselessness was exposed. Ukraine is able to track rocket firings from Russian territory, a capability provided through up-to-date information. From vantage locations, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been deployed to counter approaching aerial threats flew past – sophisticated military planes provided to Ukraine by NATO members.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons activated: multiple launches deployed against a Russian ballistic missile. This was a modern interception technology at work, presumably supplied through partner states. Every firing creates sudden vibrations, rattling buildings. The instant of fear quickly becomes resigned acknowledgment: perhaps the approaching threat won't cause damage this time, sparing the city from ruin and another blackout.
Ongoing Risks
Not long after, a automatic firearm engaged a unmanned aircraft close by, part of a rapid response unit – most likely allied-provided weaponry. Sadly, the bullets missed the opposing UAV – it continued its flight toward its objective.
Periodically, this continued until dawn. Kyiv faced the morning news: multiple fatalities, devastation and utility failures in numerous residences as a result of the evening attack. As customarily, everyone still went about their day – living the war. But those full day encapsulated Ukraine's vital need on external assistance – a need that regional partners are evidently unprepared to replace in the short term.
Failed Diplomacy
The detailed framework from American leadership generated strong feelings, controversy and deep concern – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after earlier high-level meetings and multilateral gatherings.
Every new proposal from US leadership adheres to the identical sequence: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, manages to fend off. They stabilise the situation but never actually win the battle. This cycle will, certainly, continue.
Tactical Assessments
It is convenient to criticize certain parties of consistently pushing Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. US administration operates on a principle understood by seasoned negotiators: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have been unable to protect through force. The White House presumes that it is unrealistic to compel Moscow to abandon the areas that it already controls in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The issue is that while recognising this factual reality, Washington does minimal to deter Moscow, through diplomacy or military means, from thinking that the current condition will not evolve additionally in its benefit in the coming year.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, Moscow is certain that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its allies are coming close to fatigue. Their reason to accept conditions that does not give them the maximum possible gain is close to zero. There may be many attempts to end hostilities, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leadership remains completely certain in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still hold out, progressively conceding people and territory but preventing a complete military breakdown until circumstances change in its favour.
Present Conditions
Objectively, there are no actual prerequisites for a armistice. Now, personal considerations are becoming relevant: political desires to mediate resolution and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Kyiv's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the national cause against any plan Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their attention does not switch to homefront challenges. And although their task will now be considerably more difficult after latest incidents, it remains highly unlikely that this will change their overall approach.
These two forces are guiding negotiations.
Summary and Prospects
It took a mere seven days to eliminate the proposed articles of the latest plan. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by Washington, opposition by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with pacifying measures of negotiators, and finally, recent disclosures, all served their function.
While new proposals based on previous concepts are imminent, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off negotiation assaults from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and demonstrate specific hesitation to modify developments, if they remain united and enhance their military capacity at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the coming months, primarily depend on ongoing international assistance.
