Ten years after the UK entered into a rushed public vote that polarised the nation and triggered chaos, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two leading journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly tense and transformative public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gather momentum very quickly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the political architecture of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
New Title Seeks to Stir Debate
The team have examined the political, economic and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the issue with a roadshow of lectures that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns all parties, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose results have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily divided society where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the victorious side don't know exactly what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is approaching, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, resulting in ambiguity when or if there could be a national vote.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements for and against unity has obscured the shortage of serious debate, said McBride.
"Many are for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A lot has occurred in scholarly circles but very few government figures or activists seek to involve themselves even with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, none of the commentators advocates unity or the status quo. Both writes two pieces that seek neutrality in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling financial and societal figures, previous instances and constitutional models.
Debates encompass identity markers, duties, health services, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of loyalist violence. The goal is to enlighten and provoke dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there hasn't quite been a debate," stated the writer. "Dialogue implies an acceptance of the notion that there could be good arguments on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate say they support unification but refuse increased taxation or adopting a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to work out what the proposal from nationalist groups is other than just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride believes a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it might occur suddenly. "It is possible just a reckless or a ill-advised or a negligent government minister who states: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified points, he stated. "Somebody will prevail here and the other side will ultimately lose but each side has got something to gain from the opposing viewpoints."
Call for Broader Dialogue
Westminster must engage with the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish question."
