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Mounting apprehensions have emerged over the potential of warfare among Horn of Africa neighbours, the Ethiopian government and Eritrea, as hostile rhetoric has intensified in the past few weeks.

What Did Ethiopian Officials Declared?

Landlocked Ethiopia's demands for passage to the maritime outlet through Eritrean territory has sparked a intense rhetorical conflict.

PM Abiy Ahmed first openly declared in 2023 that his nation's maritime access was an crucial concern, comments that Eritrea ignored.

Relations between the neighboring nations have often been tense. Following a prolonged battle for independence, Eritrea, which has a extensive sea border, legally broke away from Ethiopian rule in the early 1990s, leaving it cut off from the sea.

Five years later, a territorial conflict erupted in which more than 100,000 people were killed.

Recent Remarks from Ethiopia's Leadership

Abiy and army chief Field Marshal Birhanu Jula have directly stated control of Eritrean coastal city of Assab – some 60 km from the frontier - and implied the intention to take it by force.

In early September, the Prime Minister said Ethiopia's "mistake" of being denied passage to the Red Sea as a result of Eritrea's separation would be "addressed soon".

The Ethiopian envoy to Kenya, former General Bacha Debele, said that Assab was "Ethiopia's wealth" and would be returned "by force".

Eritrean Response to the Threats

In the face of persistent threats from Ethiopia, Eritrea's reaction has been limited to concise remarks on social media from Communications Head the minister.

Officials have denied Ethiopia's push for access to the Red Sea labeling it "dangerous" and a "toxic agenda" of "expansionism" – a strategy of claiming back lost territory.

Government spokespeople alerted on recently that efforts to justify "flagrant aggression" would have significant repercussions for Ethiopia and its neighbors and is a "redline that should not be crossed|violated|breached".

Security Movements on the Region

Currently, there are few indications of significant troop deployments in the boundary zones between the neighboring states.

Nevertheless, in the country, government media has shown completion events of thousands of cadets at various military training camps.

The head of personnel division of the military, Lt Gen Hachalu Sheleme, stated recently in an interview that the army was in a "reliable position" as "numerous of recruits" were entering service, which he said was "a warning to our opponents".

Previous Roots of the Conflict

For more than half a century from the late 19th century, Eritrea was ruled by Italian rulers.

After World War II, it was then managed by the UK forces before evolving into a federated part of Ethiopia.

Yet in the early 1960s Emperor Haile Selassie I ended this arrangement and Eritrea became completely integrated into Ethiopia.

A thirty-year civil war ensued, ending with Ethiopia's defeat in the early 1990s. Independence was then approved by the population in a referendum in 1993.

For a few years in the 1990s, there were good relations between the leadership in Addis Ababa and Eritrea's capital, but they disagreed over the exact location of their mutual frontier, causing hostilities in 1998.

Although this ended in a ceasefire agreement in 2000, it was never fully implemented, and the neighbors continued at loggerheads.

This situation improved in 2018, when Abiy made approaches to Eritrea's leader the president. The both leaders endorsed a announcement that the war was concluded – a action that earned the Prime Minister the prestigious award.

The two governments were then allies in the country's previous internal conflict in Tigray.

But diplomatic connections have later worsened anew.